Sultan Süleyman: Pioneering Data-Driven Rule in the Ottoman Empire

“Data is the lifeblood of decision-making and the raw material for accountability.” — United Nation, “A World that Counts” report

If there is one factor that has driven the material progress of human civilization, improved living standards, and shaped the governance of nations, it is the preservation of data. From the earliest records kept by ancient civilizations to the vast databases of today, the ability to store, analyze, and derive insights from data has been central to humanity’s advancement. Data is vital for effective public policy, understanding human behavior, fostering balanced economic growth, and advancing science and technology. In fact, the seeds of the Industrial Revolution can be traced to empirical observations and data analysis.

The numbers have no way of speaking for themselves. We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning — Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise

However, while data is essential, it’s not sufficient. It is the interpretation of the data and the derivation of actionable insights that drive progress. Nations and cultures that excel at this process are better positioned to thrive, while those that neglect it often fall behind. From ancient civilizations (e.g., the Sumerians) to the dominant nations of the 21st century, the ability to gather and understand data has been a defining characteristic of successful civilizations. One of the finest examples of this can be found during the reign of Ottoman Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent, whose strategic use of data helped him govern an empire that spanned vast territories and was admired by his European counterparts for its strength and stability.

Suleiman the Magnificent (reigned 1520–1566) was not only a powerful and expansive ruler but also an administrator who deeply respected pragmatism, particularly in his meticulous approach to governance. His reign marked the height of the Ottoman Empire, and his success was largely due to his focus on careful data collection and data-driven decision-making, which helped his bureaucrats manage the empire’s vast resources efficiently. We can see this reliance on data in the following administrative matters:

1. Meticulous Data Collection for Taxation
   The Ottoman bureaucracy under Suleiman excelled in record-keeping, especially regarding taxation. The empire’s wealth depended on its ability to systematically collect taxes from a diverse and expansive population spread across multiple continents. Detailed land and population surveys, known as tahrir defterleri, recorded land ownership, agricultural production, and the taxable population. These records allowed the government to assess and collect taxes efficiently, maximizing revenue which in turn helped empire’s military and administrative expenses.
2. Data-Driven Military Administration
   Suleiman’s military campaigns required precise planning, logistical support, and financial resources. The Ottoman military maintained detailed registers that documented the number of soldiers, supplies, and military salaries. The Janissary Corps and the Sipahi cavalry, two key military units, were managed through well-organized records. By analyzing this data, Ottomans could make informed decisions regarding troop deployment, resource allocation, and military strategy. This data-driven approach also helped the sultan in pursuing the path of diplomacy when the information pointed in that direction.
3. Centralized Bureaucratic Efficiency
   Suleiman also introduced reforms that optimized decision-making processes. He relied on data collected from provincial governors and officials to monitor local developments. This centralized system allowed Suleiman to make decisions based on real-time information from across the empire, enhancing his ability to govern effectively. These reforms, coupled with Shariah law, helped Suleiman establish a strong legal framework, earning him the title “Kanuni” or “The Lawgiver.”
4. Resource Management and Infrastructure
   Suleiman’s respect for data and empiricism extended to infrastructure and economic management. Detailed records of agricultural output, trade, and natural resources allowed the Ottoman state to manage its economy effectively. Infrastructure projects, such as the construction of roads, bridges, and aqueducts, were planned with careful attention to the empire’s logistical and economic needs.

Suleiman the Magnificent’s respect for pragmatism, meticulous data collection, and data-driven decision-making was crucial to the success of the Ottoman Empire during his reign.

Unfortunately, this pragmatism was subsequently lost by his successors and the broader Muslim community, who relied on heuristics and overly optimistic projections, leading to one strategic blunder after another. This ultimately resulted in dampened economic growth, unemployment, and social unrest. In contrast, countries that rely on data can realistically project their repayment abilities and weigh the cost of borrowing against the economic growth it can generate. Even when a country is prosperous, if it does not manage its resources and capital properly, it risks underperforming and becoming overly reliant on other economies for development. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s oil revenue surpassed $50 billion in 1980, with profits exceeding $10 billion. Despite such immense wealth, the country’s investment and development strategy did not elevate it to the status of a superpower.

Even at the individual level, if you want to understand trends in world affairs, you need a basic understanding of: (1) the relevant metrics to look at, and (2) basic statistical concepts like mean, median, rate of growth, percentiles, and graph reading to derive insights from those trends. We will aim to explain basic statistics in an easy-to-understand manner in future posts. If you want to explore statistics on your own, Khan Academy is a good place to start: https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability/analyzing-categorical-data

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